Growing up fast: Vietnam discovers the consumer society

Vietnam began to liberalize its economy in the 1980s, when the country’s leaders launched doi moi (or “renovation”). It was only after President Clinton lifted the US trade embargo in 1994, though, that multinationals began to pile in. Since then, Vietnam has taken off. In 2007, it joined the World Trade Organization (WTO)—just in time for the global financial crisis.

The country weathered the storm well, posting 5 percent growth in 2009. This year should be even better. For retailers and consumer goods companies, Vietnam is an attractive market: the economy is growing briskly and sustainably, and the population is adding a million people
a year. Even more important, the country’s middle class is growing fast: from 7 million households in 2003 to an estimated 25 million in 2013. Vietnam’s literacy rate is 92.5 percent, and from 2003 to 2008 the number of college and university students nearly doubled. The cities, though mostly small, are expanding rapidly. Six of them—Can Tho, Da Nang, Haiphong, Hanoi, Ho Chi Minh City, and Nha Trang—account for 40 percent of the country’s sales, according to AC Nielsen estimates from 2007 (Exhibit 1).

The Vietnamese government estimates that retail sales reached $39.1 billion in 2009—almost twice as high as five years earlier. And the country has room to grow: per capita retail sales, at $450, are among the lowest in Asia. Setting up shop in Vietnam, however, isn’t easy. The market is fragmented and difficult to reach, and although 100 percent foreign-owned retailers can register for an operating license, they are generally allowed to open only one outlet. To expand further, they must pass an “economic needs test,” in which the government analyzes a new project’s economic impact.

The test gives local governments an effective—and sometimes arbitrary—veto over new developments. Such regulations are legal and relatively common under WTO guidelines. Even so, they are more broadly applied in Vietnam than in most other countries, limiting access to the domestic market.