English 
Vietnamese An awareness of the ever-deepening connection that now exists between the world’s economies should by now be hard-wired into corporate strategic thinking. Very few countries can escape the impacts of developments elsewhere, both positive and negative. Assessing the risks and opportunities presented by these impacts is a key responsibility of those who lead and manage companies. Unfortunately, as we move into 2012, the task has never been more complex and difficult, and the premium on judgment never higher.
The outlook is not universally bleak, however, with some respite provided by our latest forecast for rapid-growth markets. Growth in the 25 countries we examine will be slightly less 2012 than expected only three months ago. But it should overall be solid and offers a promising platform for those businesses ready to seize their opportunities.
The area where many of the current difficulties have originated is, of course, the Eurozone where growth is very flat and predicted to be negative in the first half of 2012 by our recent Eurozone forecasts. Slackening demand, turbulent and volatile markets and credit liquidity problems in Europe are beginning to squeeze rapid-growth markets but not to the extent of sinking their good prospects. According to our latest Rapid-Growth Markets Forecast, these countries should still manage to achieve 5.3% growth in 2012 (6% in our last forecast) after 6.1% in 2011. Moreover, they are still expected to account for nearly half of global growth in next 10 years, with emerging Asia leading the way at an annual average growth rate of 7%.
The region will be followed by Sub-Saharan Africa with an anticipated annual average of 4.5%.
Reaction to the first set of our forecasts has been gratifyingly positive. Inevitably questions are raised about the composition of the group of 25 countries that we are focusing on every quarter. It is not our intention that the list should be unchanged for all time: countries’ economic fortunes ebb and flow during the course of business cycles. The pecking order of relevance and importance is bound to change and some are likely to drop out of our group to make room for newcomers. We define the group of 25 according to three
criteria:
- Proven strong growth and future potential
- Size of the economy and population
- Strategic importance for business
These criteria are serving us well for the time being, not least because they are built on robust statistical foundations. As our report makes clear, Africa is seriously beginning to surprise. It is now the second-fastest growing region in the world. Certainly growth and development is by no meanss uniform across the continent and political risk is never far from the heart of many investors’ concerns. But rising commodity prices and a stronger regard in many countries for business-friendly policies is yielding benefits. Growth in sub-Saharan Africa from 2003–10 averaged 5.7%, and is expected to have been around 5%–5.5% in 2010 and 2011.
Like other rapid-growth markets, African countries may well have to try harder to stimulate and manage their future growth than in the past, particularly if the slowdown in developed countries mutates into anything more than a mild recession. Africa has much to do, not least in putting more resources and effort into promoting education, skills development and infrastructure improvements.
In the current uncertain global context, companies may well need to lower their expectations of making swift gains from the rapidly expanding middle class in many emerging economies. Although opportunities do exist, they may be fewer than anticipated: emerging countries such as China and India are tightening monetary policies in response to inflationary pressures, while others are putting more emphasis on fiscal discipline.
Company boards and senior management should also avoid being trapped in conventional mind-sets and expectations. They must prepare for stronger competition from local companies in rapid-growth markets and may even face possible takeover attempts by these companies. Short of that, we are bound to see more emerging market companies taking minority stakes in counterparts in the developed world.
What is sure is that there are challengers in the world’s major regions that are quickly establishing their credentials as promising places to invest. They are also becoming direct investors and asset owners in developed countries. Members of this group are not yet ready to supplant in power and wealth the United States, Germany, France and the UK, but they already require us to be aware that they are looking to the markets of the developed world and not just inward investment, for an increasing contribution to their economic growth. For their part, developed countries know they will have a tough battle on their hands competing against some of the fast-growing companies that in some countries are viewed as “national champions.”
